HCIL-2007-05

Buono, P., Plaisant, C., Simeone, A., Aris, A., Shneiderman, B., Shmueli, G., Jank, W.
April 2007
Similarity-Based Forecasting with Simultaneous Previews: A River Plot Interface for Time Series Forecasting,Proc. of the 11th International Conference Information Visualization (IV '07), 2007, 191-196 [Published Version]
HCIL-2007-05
Time-series forecasting has a large number of applications. Users with a partial time series for auctions, new stock offerings, or industrial processes desire estimates of the future behavior. We present a data driven forecasting method and interface called Similarity-Based Forecasting (SBF). A pattern matching search in a dataset of historical time series produces a subset of curves similar to the partial time series. The forecast is displayed graphically as a river plot showing statistical information about the SBF subset. A forecasting preview interface allows users to interactively explore alternative pattern matching parameters and see multiple forecasts simultaneously. User testing with 8 users demonstrated advantages and led to improvements.
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